Would Chile Annex Pacific Nations Facing Flood Risks?
In February 2024, Chile faced an almost biblical climate paradox: even as firefighters battled wildfires that had killed more than 120 people in the forested hillsides, meteorologists warned that record-breaking rains were about to swell rivers and trigger mudslides in other parts of the country 1 . This simultaneous occurrence of fire and flood represents the new normal in a world where climate change intensifies both drought and deluge, creating what scientists describe as a "dangerous climate cocktail" that devastates regions known for historically mild weather 1 .
Behind these disasters lie two powerful forces: human-caused climate change from burning fossil fuels, and the natural weather pattern known as El Niño 1 . This combination creates a troubling preview of our planetary future, where once-stable regions face increasingly extreme and unpredictable weather. As countries worldwide grapple with these changes, a radical question emerges: could nations disproportionately affected by climate change seek solutions through territorial expansion? Specifically, would Chile—itself facing climate pressures—consider annexing flood-prone countries in the Western Pacific?
| Event Type | Impact | Climate Connection |
|---|---|---|
| Megadrought | Decade-long water shortages, strained supplies, parched crops | Warming temperatures, changing precipitation patterns 5 |
| Atmospheric Rivers | Hundreds of millimeters of rain/snow, flooding, mudslides, displaced thousands | Extra moisture from warmed Pacific oceans 5 |
| Wildfires | 120+ deaths, devastated forested hillsides | Drought-parched vegetation, heat waves 1 |
120+ deaths in forested hillsides
Hundreds of millimeters of rain/snow
Decade-long water shortages
Climate change is quietly reshuffling the deck of global advantages that countries have held for centuries. According to research in Foreign Affairs, we may be entering "The Coming Age of Territorial Expansion," where climate change fuels contests—and possibly wars—for land and resources 2 . The qualities that make territory valuable—access to resources, human habitability, agricultural productivity, and proximity to trade routes—are all being transformed by our warming planet 2 .
Canada could gain 1.6 million square miles of arable land by 2080—a fourfold increase from current farmland 2 .
Melting Arctic ice is opening lucrative shipping routes like the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route 2 .
Then-U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly expressed interest in the United States incorporating Greenland 2 . Though officially a Danish territory, Greenland's strategic position and vast tracts of once-inhospitable land becoming more accessible due to retreating icecaps make it increasingly attractive to outside powers 2 . Denmark showed no interest in selling, and Greenland's indigenous population was largely wary, but the episode signaled that "what seems brazen and bizarre now may well become more common in the coming decades" as policymakers grapple with the consequences of a warming planet 2 .
Traditional territorial value based on resources and strategic location
Changing agricultural potential and shipping routes
Increased competition for newly valuable territories
While northern territories become more valuable, the situation is dire for low-lying island nations, particularly in the Western Pacific. According to the World Health Organization, "Pacific Islands have the smallest carbon footprint but bear the biggest burden from climate change" 7 .
In Tuvalu and similar islands, houses now experience regular flooding during high tides due to sea level rise 7 .
Warmer temperatures expand the range of malaria, dengue and other vector-borne diseases 7 .
Health facilities in the Pacific are built near coastlines, making them highly vulnerable during extreme weather 7 .
| Threat | Impact | Regional Example |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Level Rise | Coastal erosion, freshwater contamination, permanent inundation | Tuvalu: houses flooded during high tides 7 |
| Extreme Weather | Damaged infrastructure, displacement, agricultural disruption | 2/3 of countries with highest relative disaster losses globally are small island states 7 |
| Health Systems Strain | Reduced healthcare access, disease spread, infrastructure damage | Health facilities vulnerable due to coastal locations 7 |
To understand why Chile might seek territorial expansion as a climate adaptation strategy, we must first examine its own profound climate challenges.
For more than a decade, central Chile has suffered through a "megadrought" that has strained water supplies, parched crops, and created tinderbox conditions for wildfires 5 . This prolonged dry period has challenged the country's agricultural sector and water management systems, with scientists linking it to broader climate change patterns 5 .
In winter 2023, Chile's drought was interrupted by not one, but two atmospheric rivers that brought hundreds of millimeters of rain and snow to the region 5 . While this precipitation provided some drought relief, it came too quickly and intensely. The resulting floods and mudslides damaged roads and bridges, destroyed thousands of homes, and displaced tens of thousands of people 5 .
René Garreaud, an atmospheric scientist at Universidad de Chile, noted a strong orographic effect during these events: "We saw five to ten times more rain in the Andean foothills compared to Chile's Central Valley" 5 . Higher elevation areas saw boosted rainfall because the Andes forced incoming moisture upward, where lower air pressure and cooler temperatures cause water vapor to condense into rain droplets 5 .
To understand the science behind Chile's climate extremes, let's examine a key NASA study that analyzed the atmospheric rivers that swamped central Chile in 2023 5 .
NASA scientists employed a multi-faceted approach to understand these extreme weather events:
NASA used the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) which combines satellite data with models of physical processes to calculate what's happening in Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces 5 .
The data revealed the stunning scale of these atmospheric rivers:
| Location | Rainfall Measurement | Comparative Context |
|---|---|---|
| Andean Foothills | 370 mm (15 inches) in 3 days | Five to ten times more than Central Valley 5 |
| El Paico | 80 mm (3 inches) in 3 days | Significant flooding, mudslides 5 |
| Maule Foothills (June event) | 500 mm (20 inches) in 2 days | Double Santiago's annual average rainfall 5 |
This research matters because it reveals how climate change may be transforming atmospheric rivers. Some studies suggest that climate change may cause atmospheric rivers to produce more rain and shift poleward 5 . One analysis by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory found that under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, atmospheric rivers may decrease in frequency but grow longer and wider 5 .
These findings have global implications, suggesting that regions traditionally dependent on atmospheric rivers for water supply might see changes, while other regions might experience these intense weather events for the first time.
| Tool or Concept | Function | Application in Chile Study |
|---|---|---|
| Atmospheric River | Long, narrow regions that transport vast amounts of water vapor from tropics poleward | Explained the narrow band of moisture stretching from central Pacific to Chile 5 |
| Precipitable Water Vapor | Measures total water in atmospheric column if condensed to liquid | Quantified moisture volume in incoming weather systems 5 |
| Orographic Effect | Enhanced precipitation when air is forced upward over mountains | Explained why Andes foothills received 5-10x more rain than valleys 5 |
| GEOS Modeling | Goddard Earth Observing System combining satellite data with physical process models | Provided comprehensive view of atmospheric conditions 5 |
The notion of Chile annexing flood-prone Pacific nations raises profound ethical questions that cannot be separated from the science of climate change.
There's an uncomfortable parallel between potential climate-driven territorial expansion and historical colonialism. As one legal scholar notes, when discussing U.S. territories, "the global climate emergency is a 'crisis of morality'" for island colonies that "experience crushing climate change impacts despite contributing very little to greenhouse gas emissions" 9 .
This power imbalance echoes through history. As one analysis of U.S. territorial policy notes, the U.S. government historically viewed territorial peoples as "alien," "ignorant," "semicivilized," and "above all ... untrained in the arts of representative government" 9 . These damaging cultural representations were used to justify political subordination 9 .
Rather than annexation, a more ethical and effective approach may be the Territorial Approach to Climate Change (TACC), a partnership of UN agencies that works with local governments in developing countries to increase resilience to climate impacts while reducing carbon footprints 6 .
Similarly, the World Bank has supported Pacific Alliance countries (Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru) in developing new flood modelling tools to better manage flood risk 8 . This collaborative approach acknowledges the shared nature of the climate threat while respecting national sovereignty.
The scale of the challenge is staggering. New modeling shows that the combined flood losses that Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru are estimated to see each year average over $11 billion under current climate conditions 8 . This rises to over $26 billion in a 2°C global warming scenario and over $36 billion in a 3°C warming scenario 8 .
Current Climate
2°C Warming
3°C Warming
Estimated annual flood losses for Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru 8
The question of whether Chile would annex flood-prone Pacific nations reveals the profound ways climate change is challenging our traditional concepts of borders, sovereignty, and international responsibility. While the science clearly shows both Chile and Pacific islands face existential threats from climate change, the solution likely lies not in territorial expansion but in cooperative resilience.
The same atmospheric rivers that swamp Chile connect it climatically to the Pacific regions it might consider annexing. The emissions from industrialized nations threaten both Chilean water supplies and Pacific island homelands. In this interconnected system, genuine security comes not from controlling more territory but from building adaptive capacity—both at home and abroad.
As Dr. Takeshi Kasai, WHO Regional Director for the Western Pacific, noted, "Our health and wellbeing are closely linked with the planet's health. If we don't urgently take action, we are risking our health in the future. Our children and our children's children will suffer the most. We must act today" 7 .
The future of Chile, the Pacific islands, and all regions facing climate disruption depends on our ability to recognize that in the age of climate change, true resilience comes through cooperation, not conquest.